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Turkey

US Revised Tariffs (%)

15

Ease of doing business

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Revised Tariff %
Original Tariff %
Country Tariff Rate %
Share of US Imports % (1 implies <1%)
15
10
4.3
1
Exports (in USD Bill.) 2024
Imports (in USD Bill.) 2024
Balance (in USD Bill.) 2024
15.29
16.75
-1.45

Implications

As of late January 2026, the trade relationship between the U.S. and Turkey is navigating a period of heightened tension. While Turkey is not currently on the "Dirty 15" list of major surplus countries, it has recently become exposed to a massive new secondary tariff threat.


Latest US Tariffs Update (January 2026)


  • The "Iran Link" Threat: On January 13, 2026, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all trade with any country that does business with Iran, effective immediately. Because Turkey maintains significant energy and trade ties with Iran (including a natural gas contract through 2026), it is currently in a high-risk zone for this blanket tariff.

  • Section 232 (Semiconductors): As of January 15, 2026, a 25% tariff was implemented on certain semiconductors and manufacturing equipment. While Turkey is a smaller player here compared to East Asia, its growing tech and defense assembly sectors are facing increased component costs.

  • The "Greenland" Factor: While the latest 10% (rising to 25% in June) tariffs over the Greenland dispute specifically target several EU nations and the UK, the broader "Reciprocal Tariff" policy remains a baseline for Turkey, often hovering around a 10-15% average for manufactured goods.


Major Companies Impacted


The impact is split between Turkish exporters and U.S. manufacturers with deep supply chains in the region.

Company

Sector

Impact Type

BOTAŞ

Energy

Exposed to potential sanctions/tariffs due to Iranian gas imports.

Ford Otosan

Automotive

Major exporter; faces increased costs for parts moving between US/Turkey.

Erdemir / Isdemir

Steel

Historically hit by Section 232; remains under pressure from reciprocal duties.

Otokar

Defense

Exporting armored vehicles; faces high scrutiny and potential tech import hurdles.

Caterpillar / John Deere

Heavy Machinery

US-based; seeing margin compression on Turkish-sourced components.

GDP & Balance of Trade (YTD 2026)


  • GDP Impact: The OECD and IMF suggest that trade fragmentation could become a drag on Turkey's growth. While 2025 GDP growth was revised to 3.2%, forecasts for 2026 suggest a slowdown toward 2.5-2.8% if the 25% "Iran-linked" tariff is fully enforced.

  • Balance of Trade (BOT):

    • December 2025 (Latest Final): -$9.4 Billion (Widest gap in 8 months).

    • 2025 Full Year Deficit: ~$92 Billion.

    • YTD 2026 Trend: Early January data suggests the deficit remains "sticky" due to high energy costs and a cooling of export demand in the US and EU.


SWOT Analysis: Turkey Economy (2026 Trade Context)

Strengths

Weaknesses

* Geopolitical "Middle Power" status (pivotal for NATO/US relations).


* Strong manufacturing base (automotive, textiles, defense).


* Robust tourism revenue (forecasted at $70B for 2026).

* Chronic trade deficit ($90B+ annually).


* High inflation (projected ~26% by end of 2026).


* Energy dependency on Iran and Russia.

Opportunities

Threats

* Potential "Board of Peace" role in Gaza (diplomatic leverage with US).


* Diversification of supply chains away from China.


* Expansion of defense industry exports to non-US markets.

* 25% US secondary tariff due to Iran trade.


* Global shift toward protectionism (US Reciprocal Trade Act).


* Real appreciation of the Lira making exports less competitive.


US Revised Tariffs

Country Tariffs

Balance of Trade

Commercial Guide

Learn about the market conditions, opportunities, regulations, and business conditions in countries, prepared by U.S. Embassies worldwide, Commerce Department, State Department and other U.S. agencies’ professionals

Tariff Rate for US

World Bank staff estimates using the World Integrated Trade Solution system, based on tariff data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's Trade Analysis and Information System ( TRAINS ) database and global imports data from the United Nations Statistics Division's Comtrade database.

US Imports Guide 

United States Imports from Countries during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. United States Imports from Countries- data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on April of 2025.

Investing in USA

theboardiQ Economic Relevance Score, ranks States of USA based on 11 parameters

Sources : ForbesUSDA Economic Research | TCGen Total Innovation Rank Index | Best States for Manufacturing | World Population Review | Tax Foundation | US News | BEA Data | Wikipedia International Trade Administration

theboardiQ's Economic Relevance Score provides a comprehensive, data-driven assessment of a nation's economic vitality and global significance. This score is meticulously calculated using 11 key parameters, each reflecting a critical facet of economic performance. It analyzes the representation of Fortune 500 companies within a nation, a strong indicator of its business environment and market size. The balance of trade surplus or deficit reveals the nation's international competitiveness and export strength. It incorporates Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a fundamental measure of overall economic output, and examine the health of key sectors like agriculture and manufacturing. The score also accounts for innovation, gauging a nation's ability to drive future growth through technological advancements. Crucial labor market indicators such as employment rates are considered, alongside fiscal policies reflected in tax rates. To capture the lived experience of citizens, it assesses cost of living and disposable income, providing insight into purchasing power and economic well-being. Finally, education levels are integrated, recognizing their pivotal role in fostering a skilled workforce and driving long-term economic development. By synthesizing these 11 parameters, theboardiQ's Economic Relevance Score delivers a nuanced and holistic view of a nation's economic standing, enabling informed strategic decisions. The Top 5 States in the assessment are Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida and Washington. Texas does consistently well across most of the 11 variables especially in the areas of GDP, F500 representation in the State, Balance of Trade where it ranks 2nd nationally. North Carolina scores as the highest-ranking state nationally in manufacturing and performs consistently across the other variables. Virginia does well in disposable income where it ranks 3rd nationally. It also scores high in the variables of manufacturing and employment Florida holds the 4th ranking nationally for GDP and Tax Washington State scores the top spot for disposable income nationally, 2nd for education and 3rd for innovation. Colorado, with an overall rank of 7 scores the top spot for Education (schools and higher education). Nebraska, that ranked 10th overall, did well in Agriculture where it is ranked 3rd nationally as well as Trade Balance where it ranked 5th. Illinois, though ranked 20th overall did well nationally in F500 representation, GDP, Agriculture, and Disposable Income. Pennsylvania comes in at 21 overall doing well nationally in GDP (6th); Manufacturing (8th) and F500 representation (8th) New York scores 23rd overall with a 2 ranking in Disposable Income nationally, as well as 3rd in both F500 representation and GDP. California comes in at 29th overall and has the top spot ranking in a whopping 4 variables nationally – GDP, Innovation, Agriculture and F500 representation. However, performance in the areas of Trade Balance, Cost of Living, Tax, Manufacturing and Employment resulted in the overall ranking dipping. Wyoming at 30th overall scores the top spot nationally in the area of Tax Massachusetts at 31 overall does well in innovation where it is ranked 2nd nationally Arkansas at 36 and Alabama at 39, do well in overall Cost of Living where they are ranked 2nd and 3rd nationally, respectively. Louisiana ranked 44th overall is ranked 1st in Trade Balance nationally.

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