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Implications
As of January 2026, the U.S. trade landscape under the Trump administration remains highly volatile. While Tokelau—a remote territory of New Zealand—is an extremely minor trade partner, it has not been spared from the broad "reciprocal tariff" policies enacted over the past year.
Latest US Tariffs Update: Tokelau (2025–2026)
In early 2025, the U.S. implemented a baseline reciprocal tariff strategy. For Tokelau, this resulted in a 10% flat tariff on most goods.
Current Status: Most imports from Tokelau are subject to a 10% to 15% rate as part of the "Reciprocal Trade Act" initiatives.
The "Greenland" Effect: Recent threats in January 2026 to increase tariffs on "non-cooperative" partners (initially aimed at the EU and Nordic countries over Greenland) have created a secondary wave of uncertainty for all Pacific territories that rely on New Zealand or Australian maritime logistics.
Trade Volume: Bilateral trade is negligible. In 2025, U.S. imports from Tokelau were valued at approximately $10,000 to $18,000 monthly, consisting mostly of "commodities not elsewhere specified" and small mechanical parts (valves).
Major Companies & GDP Impact
Because Tokelau has no airports and no large-scale industry, the "impact" is almost entirely absorbed by the logistics providers that service the South Pacific.
Logistics & Shipping: Companies like Maersk and MSC are impacted by the increased complexity of "territory-specific" customs coding. Shipping a single container that might contain parts from various Pacific atolls now requires more rigorous (and expensive) tariff classification.
Retailers: Giant retailers like Walmart and Home Depot are indirectly affected, as these tariffs are part of a wider "Pacific-wide" increase that raises the cost of raw materials and small-scale artisanal goods.
GDP Impact:
Tokelau: The 10% tariff is largely symbolic due to the tiny export volume. However, it increases the cost of "re-exported" goods from the U.S. (like nuts and surveying equipment) which Tokelau relies on for infrastructure.
United States: The impact on U.S. GDP is mathematically zero (rounded). On a national scale, the broader 2025 tariff regime is estimated to have reduced U.S. GDP growth by approximately 0.5% to 0.9% due to increased consumer prices.
SWOT Analysis: US-Tokelau Trade Relations
Strengths | Weaknesses |
Niche Products: Unique artisanal or specific mechanical parts (valves) provide a tiny but stable trade floor. | Isolation: No airports or large ports; all trade must go through Samoa via boat every two weeks. |
U.S. Tech Demand: Tokelau relies on U.S. high-tech exports (oscilloscopes, surveying gear) for development. | Minimal Volume: Total annual trade is often less than the price of a single luxury SUV. |
Opportunities | Threats |
Exemptions: Potential for Tokelau to be bundled into broader New Zealand trade "carve-outs" or de-escalation deals. | Administrative Burden: Small territories face the same "Year of Enforcement" (2026) scrutiny as major nations. |
Sustainability: Opportunity for "Green" exports from Tokelau (solar/marine) to bypass standard carbon-heavy tariffs. | Supply Chain Inflation: Higher shipping costs due to global maritime duties may make Tokelau trade non-viable. |
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United States Imports from Countries during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. United States Imports from Countries- data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on April of 2025.
Investing in USA
theboardiQ Economic Relevance Score, ranks States of USA based on 11 parameters
Sources : Forbes | USDA Economic Research | TCGen Total Innovation Rank Index | Best States for Manufacturing | World Population Review | Tax Foundation | US News | BEA Data | Wikipedia | International Trade Administration
theboardiQ's Economic Relevance Score provides a comprehensive, data-driven assessment of a nation's economic vitality and global significance. This score is meticulously calculated using 11 key parameters, each reflecting a critical facet of economic performance. It analyzes the representation of Fortune 500 companies within a nation, a strong indicator of its business environment and market size. The balance of trade surplus or deficit reveals the nation's international competitiveness and export strength. It incorporates Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a fundamental measure of overall economic output, and examine the health of key sectors like agriculture and manufacturing. The score also accounts for innovation, gauging a nation's ability to drive future growth through technological advancements. Crucial labor market indicators such as employment rates are considered, alongside fiscal policies reflected in tax rates. To capture the lived experience of citizens, it assesses cost of living and disposable income, providing insight into purchasing power and economic well-being. Finally, education levels are integrated, recognizing their pivotal role in fostering a skilled workforce and driving long-term economic development. By synthesizing these 11 parameters, theboardiQ's Economic Relevance Score delivers a nuanced and holistic view of a nation's economic standing, enabling informed strategic decisions. The Top 5 States in the assessment are Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida and Washington. Texas does consistently well across most of the 11 variables especially in the areas of GDP, F500 representation in the State, Balance of Trade where it ranks 2nd nationally. North Carolina scores as the highest-ranking state nationally in manufacturing and performs consistently across the other variables. Virginia does well in disposable income where it ranks 3rd nationally. It also scores high in the variables of manufacturing and employment Florida holds the 4th ranking nationally for GDP and Tax Washington State scores the top spot for disposable income nationally, 2nd for education and 3rd for innovation. Colorado, with an overall rank of 7 scores the top spot for Education (schools and higher education). Nebraska, that ranked 10th overall, did well in Agriculture where it is ranked 3rd nationally as well as Trade Balance where it ranked 5th. Illinois, though ranked 20th overall did well nationally in F500 representation, GDP, Agriculture, and Disposable Income. Pennsylvania comes in at 21 overall doing well nationally in GDP (6th); Manufacturing (8th) and F500 representation (8th) New York scores 23rd overall with a 2 ranking in Disposable Income nationally, as well as 3rd in both F500 representation and GDP. California comes in at 29th overall and has the top spot ranking in a whopping 4 variables nationally – GDP, Innovation, Agriculture and F500 representation. However, performance in the areas of Trade Balance, Cost of Living, Tax, Manufacturing and Employment resulted in the overall ranking dipping. Wyoming at 30th overall scores the top spot nationally in the area of Tax Massachusetts at 31 overall does well in innovation where it is ranked 2nd nationally Arkansas at 36 and Alabama at 39, do well in overall Cost of Living where they are ranked 2nd and 3rd nationally, respectively. Louisiana ranked 44th overall is ranked 1st in Trade Balance nationally.
Economic
Relevance
Ranking
State | Info | Overall Rank | Agri | Innov | Mfg | Employ | Tax | Edu | GDP | F500 Rep | Trade Balance | Cost of Living | Disp Income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 13 | |
North Carolina | 2 | 9 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 11 | 16 | 41 | 17 | 17 | |
Virginia | 3 | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 34 | 35 | 3 | |
Florida | 4 | 21 | 11 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 30 | 37 | |
Washington | 5 | 16 | 3 | 36 | 28 | 45 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 9 | 43 | 1 | |
Missouri | 6 | 11 | 25 | 22 | 20 | 13 | 32 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 10 | 20 | |
Georgia | 7 | 15 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 26 | 34 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 26 | 19 | |
Minnesota | 8 | 6 | 10 | 47 | 6 | 44 | 8 | 20 | 10 | 33 | 33 | 9 | |
Ohio | 9 | 12 | 32 | 7 | 30 | 35 | 36 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 15 | 11 | |
Illinois | 10 | 5 | 23 | 31 | 23 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 47 | 32 | 7 |