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Implications
As of January 18, 2026, Thailand’s trade relationship with the U.S. is governed by the "Framework for an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade." While Thailand faces one of the more significant tariff rates in Southeast Asia, it has successfully negotiated a lower rate than initially proposed in 2025.
🇹🇭 Thailand Tariff & Trade Profile
Category | Status (as of Jan 2026) |
Current U.S. Tariff Rate | 19% (Reciprocal Baseline Rate) |
Trade Status | "Aligned Partner" (In transition to Full Reciprocal Agreement) |
Effective Date | In force since August 7, 2025 |
Potential Surcharges | +40% risk for "Transshipment" (investigations into Chinese goods relabeled in Thailand) |
De Minimis Update | Thailand eliminated its 1,500 THB duty-free threshold on Jan 1, 2026. |
Deal Status: Reciprocal Trade Framework
Thailand and the U.S. reached a breakthrough framework in late 2025 to stabilize trade.The core pillars of the agreement include:
Market Access: Thailand has committed to eliminating tariffs on 99% of U.S. goods, particularly in industrial and agricultural sectors (e.g., pork offal, soybeans, corn).
U.S. Concessions: The U.S. has lowered its rate for Thailand to 19% (down from a proposed 36%) and is currently identifying specific Thai products for 0% treatment under Annex III of Executive Order 14346.
Strategic Alignment: Thailand signed a bilateral Critical Minerals agreement with the U.S. on January 14, 2026, aimed at securing supply chains for semiconductors and EVs.
Major Impacted Companies
Electronics & Semiconductors: Delta Electronics, Western Digital, and Foxconn (Thai facilities) are managing the 19% rate while navigating Section 232 investigations on high-tech components.
Automotive: Ford and Toyota (Thai manufacturing hubs) face a 19% duty on parts exported to the U.S., though new safety/emissions alignment may ease regulatory friction.
Consumer Goods: Thai Union (Seafood) and major Pet Food exporters face significant price pressure but maintain a competitive edge over Chinese rivals who face rates exceeding 30%.
GDP & Economic Implications
The 2026 outlook for Thailand is mixed, with the "full sting" of the tariffs expected to be felt this year.
Export Contraction: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) projects a loss of ~275 billion THB in exports for 2026.
GDP Drag: Overall GDP growth is estimated to be reduced by 1.48% specifically due to the 19% U.S. tariff measures.
Growth Forecast: The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) has set a cautious export growth range of -3.1% to +1.1% for the year.
Trade Diversion Benefit: Thailand is gaining market share in categories where it is cheaper than China (e.g., air conditioners and rubber tires), partially offsetting the 19% duty.
The "Wild Card": Supreme Court (SCOTUS)
The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule imminently (likely by June 2026, though some expect an earlier decision) on the legality of the IEEPA powers used to impose these 19% tariffs.
If invalidated: Thailand could be eligible for a refund of billions in duties collected since August 2025.
If upheld: The 19% rate will likely become the permanent floor for the foreseeable future.
US Revised Tariffs
Country Tariffs
Balance of Trade
Commercial Guide
Learn about the market conditions, opportunities, regulations, and business conditions in countries, prepared by U.S. Embassies worldwide, Commerce Department, State Department and other U.S. agencies’ professionals
Tariff Rate for US
World Bank staff estimates using the World Integrated Trade Solution system, based on tariff data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's Trade Analysis and Information System ( TRAINS ) database and global imports data from the United Nations Statistics Division's Comtrade database.
US Imports Guide
United States Imports from Countries during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. United States Imports from Countries- data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on April of 2025.
Investing in USA
theboardiQ Economic Relevance Score, ranks States of USA based on 11 parameters
Sources : Forbes | USDA Economic Research | TCGen Total Innovation Rank Index | Best States for Manufacturing | World Population Review | Tax Foundation | US News | BEA Data | Wikipedia | International Trade Administration
theboardiQ's Economic Relevance Score provides a comprehensive, data-driven assessment of a nation's economic vitality and global significance. This score is meticulously calculated using 11 key parameters, each reflecting a critical facet of economic performance. It analyzes the representation of Fortune 500 companies within a nation, a strong indicator of its business environment and market size. The balance of trade surplus or deficit reveals the nation's international competitiveness and export strength. It incorporates Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a fundamental measure of overall economic output, and examine the health of key sectors like agriculture and manufacturing. The score also accounts for innovation, gauging a nation's ability to drive future growth through technological advancements. Crucial labor market indicators such as employment rates are considered, alongside fiscal policies reflected in tax rates. To capture the lived experience of citizens, it assesses cost of living and disposable income, providing insight into purchasing power and economic well-being. Finally, education levels are integrated, recognizing their pivotal role in fostering a skilled workforce and driving long-term economic development. By synthesizing these 11 parameters, theboardiQ's Economic Relevance Score delivers a nuanced and holistic view of a nation's economic standing, enabling informed strategic decisions. The Top 5 States in the assessment are Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida and Washington. Texas does consistently well across most of the 11 variables especially in the areas of GDP, F500 representation in the State, Balance of Trade where it ranks 2nd nationally. North Carolina scores as the highest-ranking state nationally in manufacturing and performs consistently across the other variables. Virginia does well in disposable income where it ranks 3rd nationally. It also scores high in the variables of manufacturing and employment Florida holds the 4th ranking nationally for GDP and Tax Washington State scores the top spot for disposable income nationally, 2nd for education and 3rd for innovation. Colorado, with an overall rank of 7 scores the top spot for Education (schools and higher education). Nebraska, that ranked 10th overall, did well in Agriculture where it is ranked 3rd nationally as well as Trade Balance where it ranked 5th. Illinois, though ranked 20th overall did well nationally in F500 representation, GDP, Agriculture, and Disposable Income. Pennsylvania comes in at 21 overall doing well nationally in GDP (6th); Manufacturing (8th) and F500 representation (8th) New York scores 23rd overall with a 2 ranking in Disposable Income nationally, as well as 3rd in both F500 representation and GDP. California comes in at 29th overall and has the top spot ranking in a whopping 4 variables nationally – GDP, Innovation, Agriculture and F500 representation. However, performance in the areas of Trade Balance, Cost of Living, Tax, Manufacturing and Employment resulted in the overall ranking dipping. Wyoming at 30th overall scores the top spot nationally in the area of Tax Massachusetts at 31 overall does well in innovation where it is ranked 2nd nationally Arkansas at 36 and Alabama at 39, do well in overall Cost of Living where they are ranked 2nd and 3rd nationally, respectively. Louisiana ranked 44th overall is ranked 1st in Trade Balance nationally.

Economic
Relevance
Ranking
State | Info | Overall Rank | Agri | Innov | Mfg | Employ | Tax | Edu | GDP | F500 Rep | Trade Balance | Cost of Living | Disp Income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 13 | |
North Carolina | 2 | 9 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 11 | 16 | 41 | 17 | 17 | |
Virginia | 3 | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 34 | 35 | 3 | |
Florida | 4 | 21 | 11 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 30 | 37 | |
Washington | 5 | 16 | 3 | 36 | 28 | 45 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 9 | 43 | 1 | |
Missouri | 6 | 11 | 25 | 22 | 20 | 13 | 32 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 10 | 20 | |
Georgia | 7 | 15 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 26 | 34 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 26 | 19 | |
Minnesota | 8 | 6 | 10 | 47 | 6 | 44 | 8 | 20 | 10 | 33 | 33 | 9 | |
Ohio | 9 | 12 | 32 | 7 | 30 | 35 | 36 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 15 | 11 | |
Illinois | 10 | 5 | 23 | 31 | 23 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 47 | 32 | 7 |