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Implications
As of late January 2026, trade relations between the US and Kazakhstan are in a state of "strategic pivot." While Kazakhstan is subject to broad US "reciprocal" tariffs, it has simultaneously been elevated to a top-tier diplomatic partner to secure critical mineral and energy supply chains.
Latest US Tariffs Update (January 2026)
Reciprocal Tariffs: Under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), Kazakhstan is currently subject to a 25% tariff on most non-resource exports to the US. This rate was adjusted down from an initial 27% in 2025.
Section 232 Measures: As of January 14, 2026, a new Section 232 proclamation on Processed Critical Minerals has been issued. While it threatens 25% tariffs, it specifically directs a 180-day negotiation period (ending July 2026) to reach security-based exemptions.
Secondary Sanctions Risk: In January 2026, the US administration announced potential 25% "third-party" tariffs on countries doing significant business with Iran. Kazakhstan, which exports grain and meat to Iran, is currently under review for this measure.
Exemptions: Key raw materials—specifically crude oil, uranium, and certain rare earth elements—remain largely exempt or under special "peace and trade" truces to prevent US energy price spikes.
Major Companies Impacted
The impact is split between US giants operating in Kazakhstan and local exporters facing higher barriers.
Company | Sector | Impact Type |
Chevron / ExxonMobil | Energy | High. Managing potential disruption to the CPC pipeline and seeking "strategic partner" protections for oil exports. |
Kazatomprom | Nuclear/Uranium | Critical. Subject to intense negotiations over US nuclear fuel supply security; currently avoids the 25% blanket tariff. |
Kazakhmys / Kazzinc | Mining | Moderate. Impacted by Section 232 critical minerals investigations; facing increased compliance costs. |
Air Astana | Aviation | Financial. Facing higher costs for US-sourced aircraft parts (Boeing) due to potential retaliatory measures. |
Kazakh Agricultural Exporters | Agri-Business | High. Manufactured and processed agricultural goods (non-raw) are hit hardest by the 25% reciprocal tariff. |
Economic Impact & Balance of Trade (BOT)
GDP Impact: Analysts estimate the trade war could reduce Kazakhstan’s GDP growth by 0.3% to 0.5% in 2026 if secondary tariffs on Iran-partners are applied. However, domestic growth remains robust at ~5% due to high oil prices.
Latest Country BOT (YTD 2026):
Kazakhstan Exports to US: ~$2.1 Billion (Annualized).
US Exports to Kazakhstan: ~$1.1 Billion (Annualized).
Trade Balance: Kazakhstan maintains a surplus of ~$1.0 Billion, though the volume of non-oil exports has dropped by nearly 30% Y-o-Y due to tariff pressure.
SWOT Analysis: Kazakhstan in the US Trade War
STRENGTHS | WEAKNESSES |
* Global leader in uranium and critical minerals. * "Multi-vector" foreign policy maintains ties with US, China, and Russia. * Strategic "Middle Corridor" transit route bypasses Russia. | * High dependence on raw material exports (oil/metals). * Vulnerability to secondary sanctions due to trade with Iran and Russia. * Landlocked geography limits alternative shipping routes. |
OPPORTUNITIES | THREATS |
* "Friend-shoring": US seeking to move supply chains away from China. * Potential for "Board of Peace" exemptions for strategic allies. * Invitation to the 2026 G20 Summit as a guest of the US. | * Escalation of US-China trade war catching Kazakhstan in the crossfire. * 25% tariffs becoming permanent or increasing to 50%. * Inflationary pressure from higher costs of US tech and machinery. |
US Revised Tariffs
Country Tariffs
Balance of Trade
Commercial Guide
Learn about the market conditions, opportunities, regulations, and business conditions in countries, prepared by U.S. Embassies worldwide, Commerce Department, State Department and other U.S. agencies’ professionals
Tariff Rate for US
World Bank staff estimates using the World Integrated Trade Solution system, based on tariff data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's Trade Analysis and Information System ( TRAINS ) database and global imports data from the United Nations Statistics Division's Comtrade database.
US Imports Guide
United States Imports from Countries during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. United States Imports from Countries- data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on April of 2025.
Investing in USA
theboardiQ Economic Relevance Score, ranks States of USA based on 11 parameters
Sources : Forbes | USDA Economic Research | TCGen Total Innovation Rank Index | Best States for Manufacturing | World Population Review | Tax Foundation | US News | BEA Data | Wikipedia | International Trade Administration
theboardiQ's Economic Relevance Score provides a comprehensive, data-driven assessment of a nation's economic vitality and global significance. This score is meticulously calculated using 11 key parameters, each reflecting a critical facet of economic performance. It analyzes the representation of Fortune 500 companies within a nation, a strong indicator of its business environment and market size. The balance of trade surplus or deficit reveals the nation's international competitiveness and export strength. It incorporates Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a fundamental measure of overall economic output, and examine the health of key sectors like agriculture and manufacturing. The score also accounts for innovation, gauging a nation's ability to drive future growth through technological advancements. Crucial labor market indicators such as employment rates are considered, alongside fiscal policies reflected in tax rates. To capture the lived experience of citizens, it assesses cost of living and disposable income, providing insight into purchasing power and economic well-being. Finally, education levels are integrated, recognizing their pivotal role in fostering a skilled workforce and driving long-term economic development. By synthesizing these 11 parameters, theboardiQ's Economic Relevance Score delivers a nuanced and holistic view of a nation's economic standing, enabling informed strategic decisions. The Top 5 States in the assessment are Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida and Washington. Texas does consistently well across most of the 11 variables especially in the areas of GDP, F500 representation in the State, Balance of Trade where it ranks 2nd nationally. North Carolina scores as the highest-ranking state nationally in manufacturing and performs consistently across the other variables. Virginia does well in disposable income where it ranks 3rd nationally. It also scores high in the variables of manufacturing and employment Florida holds the 4th ranking nationally for GDP and Tax Washington State scores the top spot for disposable income nationally, 2nd for education and 3rd for innovation. Colorado, with an overall rank of 7 scores the top spot for Education (schools and higher education). Nebraska, that ranked 10th overall, did well in Agriculture where it is ranked 3rd nationally as well as Trade Balance where it ranked 5th. Illinois, though ranked 20th overall did well nationally in F500 representation, GDP, Agriculture, and Disposable Income. Pennsylvania comes in at 21 overall doing well nationally in GDP (6th); Manufacturing (8th) and F500 representation (8th) New York scores 23rd overall with a 2 ranking in Disposable Income nationally, as well as 3rd in both F500 representation and GDP. California comes in at 29th overall and has the top spot ranking in a whopping 4 variables nationally – GDP, Innovation, Agriculture and F500 representation. However, performance in the areas of Trade Balance, Cost of Living, Tax, Manufacturing and Employment resulted in the overall ranking dipping. Wyoming at 30th overall scores the top spot nationally in the area of Tax Massachusetts at 31 overall does well in innovation where it is ranked 2nd nationally Arkansas at 36 and Alabama at 39, do well in overall Cost of Living where they are ranked 2nd and 3rd nationally, respectively. Louisiana ranked 44th overall is ranked 1st in Trade Balance nationally.

Economic
Relevance
Ranking
State | Info | Overall Rank | Agri | Innov | Mfg | Employ | Tax | Edu | GDP | F500 Rep | Trade Balance | Cost of Living | Disp Income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 13 | |
North Carolina | 2 | 9 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 11 | 16 | 41 | 17 | 17 | |
Virginia | 3 | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 34 | 35 | 3 | |
Florida | 4 | 21 | 11 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 30 | 37 | |
Washington | 5 | 16 | 3 | 36 | 28 | 45 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 9 | 43 | 1 | |
Missouri | 6 | 11 | 25 | 22 | 20 | 13 | 32 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 10 | 20 | |
Georgia | 7 | 15 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 26 | 34 | 8 | 9 | 43 | 26 | 19 | |
Minnesota | 8 | 6 | 10 | 47 | 6 | 44 | 8 | 20 | 10 | 33 | 33 | 9 | |
Ohio | 9 | 12 | 32 | 7 | 30 | 35 | 36 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 15 | 11 | |
Illinois | 10 | 5 | 23 | 31 | 23 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 47 | 32 | 7 |