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Bahrain

US Revised Tariffs (%)

10

Ease of doing business

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Revised Tariff %
Original Tariff %
Country Tariff Rate %
Share of US Imports % (1 implies <1%)
10
10
3.7
1
Exports (in USD Bill.) 2024
Imports (in USD Bill.) 2024
Balance (in USD Bill.) 2024
1.65
1.2
0.44

Implications

As of January 2026, the U.S. trade landscape with Bahrain remains anchored by the 2006 Free Trade Agreement (FTA). However, recent geopolitical shifts and universal tariff proposals have introduced new variables.


Latest US Tariffs Update (January 2026)


While Bahrain maintains its FTA, it has not been entirely immune to the broader US "Trade Protectionism" shift.

  • Universal Reciprocal Tariff: The US administration has moved toward a 10% baseline tariff on most imported goods to reduce the trade deficit.

  • Aluminum & Steel (Section 232): Despite the FTA, Bahraini aluminum and steel remain subject to the 25% (Steel) and 10% (Aluminum) tariffs originally established under Section 232.

  • Exemption Status: As of late January 2026, Bahrain is categorized under a "moderate impact" tier. Unlike European and Asian counterparts facing 25–60% hikes due to specific disputes (like the Greenland territory or semiconductor wars), Bahrain's rate is currently holding at the 10% reciprocal level for most non-exempt goods.


Major Companies Impacted


  • Aluminium Bahrain (Alba): The most significant impacted entity. As one of the world's largest smelters, its exports to the US (roughly 15-20% of its output) face the 10% Section 232 duties plus the newer baseline reciprocal costs.

  • WestPoint Home: A major US-based textile manufacturer with massive operations in Bahrain. Their bed linens and home textiles, historically a "success story" of the FTA, now face increased costs at the US border.

  • Mondelēz International: Operating a "Mega Plant" in Bahrain, their exports of biscuits and snacks to the US and regional markets are sensitive to shifting logistics and reciprocal duty costs.


Economic & GDP Impact


  • GDP Growth Forecast: Real GDP growth for 2026 is projected at 3.0% – 3.1%, a slight downward revision from previous 3.3% estimates due to trade friction and lower oil prices.

  • Inflation: Imported inflation is expected to rise to 1.7% in 2026 as the cost of US-manufactured machinery and vehicles (major imports) increases.

  • Fiscal Deficit: The deficit is expected to widen to 8.5% of GDP in 2026, as the government continues to subsidize industrial energy to keep exporters like Alba competitive against tariff-induced price hikes.


Latest Country Balance of Trade (BOT) - YTD 2026

Data based on January 2026 projections and late 2025 performance.

Metric

Value (Estimated YTD)

Notes

Total Exports

~$5.5 Billion

Driven by Aluminum and Refined Petroleum.

Total Imports

~$5.1 Billion

Focused on Machinery, Vehicles, and Food.

Trade Balance

+$0.4 Billion (Surplus)

Surplus is narrowing due to higher import costs.

US-Bahrain Trade

~$2.8 Billion (Annualized)

The US remains a top-5 trade partner for Bahrain.

SWOT Analysis: Bahrain Economy (2026 Trade Focus)

STRENGTHS

WEAKNESSES

* Established FTA: Long-standing legal framework provides more stability than non-FTA nations.

* High Debt-to-GDP: Public debt is projected to reach ~135% by the end of 2026.

* Strategic Location: Proximity to Saudi Arabia via the King Fahd Causeway allows for easy regional redistribution.

* Resource Dependency: Economy remains highly sensitive to fluctuations in aluminum and oil prices.

OPPORTUNITIES

THREATS

* US Trade Zone: The ongoing development of the US Trade Zone in Salman Industrial City attracts American FDI.

* Tariff Escalation: Potential for the 10% reciprocal tariff to increase to 25% if US-Middle East trade talks stall.

* Critical Minerals: Recent 2026 cooperation frameworks for critical minerals could exempt new tech sectors from tariffs.

* Regional Competition: Rising industrial capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE may divert US investment.


US Revised Tariffs

Country Tariffs

Balance of Trade

Commercial Guide

Learn about the market conditions, opportunities, regulations, and business conditions in countries, prepared by U.S. Embassies worldwide, Commerce Department, State Department and other U.S. agencies’ professionals

Tariff Rate for US

World Bank staff estimates using the World Integrated Trade Solution system, based on tariff data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's Trade Analysis and Information System ( TRAINS ) database and global imports data from the United Nations Statistics Division's Comtrade database.

US Imports Guide 

United States Imports from Countries during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. United States Imports from Countries- data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on April of 2025.

Investing in USA

theboardiQ Economic Relevance Score, ranks States of USA based on 11 parameters

Sources : ForbesUSDA Economic Research | TCGen Total Innovation Rank Index | Best States for Manufacturing | World Population Review | Tax Foundation | US News | BEA Data | Wikipedia International Trade Administration

theboardiQ's Economic Relevance Score provides a comprehensive, data-driven assessment of a nation's economic vitality and global significance. This score is meticulously calculated using 11 key parameters, each reflecting a critical facet of economic performance. It analyzes the representation of Fortune 500 companies within a nation, a strong indicator of its business environment and market size. The balance of trade surplus or deficit reveals the nation's international competitiveness and export strength. It incorporates Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a fundamental measure of overall economic output, and examine the health of key sectors like agriculture and manufacturing. The score also accounts for innovation, gauging a nation's ability to drive future growth through technological advancements. Crucial labor market indicators such as employment rates are considered, alongside fiscal policies reflected in tax rates. To capture the lived experience of citizens, it assesses cost of living and disposable income, providing insight into purchasing power and economic well-being. Finally, education levels are integrated, recognizing their pivotal role in fostering a skilled workforce and driving long-term economic development. By synthesizing these 11 parameters, theboardiQ's Economic Relevance Score delivers a nuanced and holistic view of a nation's economic standing, enabling informed strategic decisions. The Top 5 States in the assessment are Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida and Washington. Texas does consistently well across most of the 11 variables especially in the areas of GDP, F500 representation in the State, Balance of Trade where it ranks 2nd nationally. North Carolina scores as the highest-ranking state nationally in manufacturing and performs consistently across the other variables. Virginia does well in disposable income where it ranks 3rd nationally. It also scores high in the variables of manufacturing and employment Florida holds the 4th ranking nationally for GDP and Tax Washington State scores the top spot for disposable income nationally, 2nd for education and 3rd for innovation. Colorado, with an overall rank of 7 scores the top spot for Education (schools and higher education). Nebraska, that ranked 10th overall, did well in Agriculture where it is ranked 3rd nationally as well as Trade Balance where it ranked 5th. Illinois, though ranked 20th overall did well nationally in F500 representation, GDP, Agriculture, and Disposable Income. Pennsylvania comes in at 21 overall doing well nationally in GDP (6th); Manufacturing (8th) and F500 representation (8th) New York scores 23rd overall with a 2 ranking in Disposable Income nationally, as well as 3rd in both F500 representation and GDP. California comes in at 29th overall and has the top spot ranking in a whopping 4 variables nationally – GDP, Innovation, Agriculture and F500 representation. However, performance in the areas of Trade Balance, Cost of Living, Tax, Manufacturing and Employment resulted in the overall ranking dipping. Wyoming at 30th overall scores the top spot nationally in the area of Tax Massachusetts at 31 overall does well in innovation where it is ranked 2nd nationally Arkansas at 36 and Alabama at 39, do well in overall Cost of Living where they are ranked 2nd and 3rd nationally, respectively. Louisiana ranked 44th overall is ranked 1st in Trade Balance nationally.

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