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Serbia

US Revised Tariffs (%)

35

Ease of doing business

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Revised Tariff %
Original Tariff %
Country Tariff Rate %
Share of US Imports % (1 implies <1%)
35
37
1.7
1
Exports (in USD Bill.) 2024
Imports (in USD Bill.) 2024
Balance (in USD Bill.) 2024
0.21
0.81
-0.6

Implications

As of late January 2026, trade relations between the US and Serbia have entered a significantly more complex and tense phase. While broader US trade policy has shifted toward aggressive reciprocal tariffs globally, Serbia specifically faces high "geopolitical" tariffs due to its continued energy and security ties with Russia.


1. Latest US Tariffs Update (Serbia Focus)


The US trade posture towards Serbia for 2026 is defined by two distinct layers:

  • Targeted Punitive Tariffs: As of August 7, 2025, the US officially imposed 35% tariffs on major Serbian exports. This is notably higher than the current 25% rates applied to many other European nations, reflecting US pressure on Serbia regarding its refusal to sanction Russia and its energy dependence on Gazprom.

  • Reciprocal Baseline: Serbia is also subject to the broader Section 232 and IEEPA measures. These include a 10% baseline tariff on "any and all goods" (effective Feb 1, 2026, for many European partners), though the specific 35% rate for Serbia currently supercedes these general measures for most of its top export categories.


2. Major Companies Impacted


The impact is felt most sharply by companies in the automotive, energy, and defense sectors:

  • NIS (Naftna Industrija Srbije): The Serbian national oil company (majority-owned by Russia's Gazprom Neft) is under intense US pressure. While the US extended a temporary operating license in late January 2026 to prevent a total collapse, sanctions are driving a forced divestment process.

  • Zastava Arms & Prvi Partizan: These major Serbian state-owned defense firms are heavily impacted as the US is a primary civilian market for their hunting rifles and ammunition—categories now hit by the 35% tariff.

  • Tigar Tyres (Michelin Group): As rubber tires are Serbia’s #1 export to the US, this Michelin subsidiary faces significant margin compression.

  • UGT Renewables & Hyundai Engineering: Conversely, American firms in the renewable sector remain active, currently leading a massive 1GW solar project in Serbia as part of a "de-risking" strategy from Russian energy.


3. GDP Impact


The direct impact of US tariffs on Serbia’s GDP is modest but negative.

  • Direct Growth Reduction: Estimated at -0.1% to -0.2% of GDP. Because the US ranks roughly 19th as an export destination (the EU is #1), the immediate hit is contained.

  • Secondary Risks: The larger threat to GDP comes from indirect effects. Slowdowns in Germany and Italy (Serbia’s main trade partners) due to US-EU trade friction are expected to cool Serbian growth to roughly 3.3% for 2026, down from previous optimistic forecasts.


4. Latest Country Balance of Trade (BOT) YTD

Serbia continues to run a structural trade deficit, which has widened recently due to energy costs and industrial imports.


Metric

Latest Figure (YTD/Monthly)

Notes

Trade Balance

-$930.6 Million (Nov 2025)

Widening deficit compared to previous months.

Total Exports

$3.05 Billion (Monthly)

Driven by machinery and intermediate goods.

Total Imports

$3.98 Billion (Monthly)

Influenced by high capital goods and energy imports.

US-Serbia BOT

-$604 Million (Full Year 2025)

Serbia maintains a surplus in goods trade specifically with the US.

5. SWOT Analysis: Serbia-US Trade (2026)

Strengths

Weaknesses

High-growth ICT and tech sector; leading regional FDI attraction; resilient agriculture (raspberries/fruits).

Heavy dependence on Russian energy (NIS); small domestic market; "non-aligned" foreign policy causes friction.

Opportunities

Threats

US investment in "Green Transition" (solar/wind); EXIM Bank support for 5G; potential for "nearshoring" for EU firms.

35% US Punitive Tariffs; secondary sanctions on energy; potential loss of EU candidate status if alignment fails.


US Revised Tariffs

Country Tariffs

Balance of Trade

Commercial Guide

Learn about the market conditions, opportunities, regulations, and business conditions in countries, prepared by U.S. Embassies worldwide, Commerce Department, State Department and other U.S. agencies’ professionals

Tariff Rate for US

World Bank staff estimates using the World Integrated Trade Solution system, based on tariff data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's Trade Analysis and Information System ( TRAINS ) database and global imports data from the United Nations Statistics Division's Comtrade database.

US Imports Guide 

United States Imports from Countries during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. United States Imports from Countries- data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on April of 2025.

Investing in USA

theboardiQ Economic Relevance Score, ranks States of USA based on 11 parameters

Sources : ForbesUSDA Economic Research | TCGen Total Innovation Rank Index | Best States for Manufacturing | World Population Review | Tax Foundation | US News | BEA Data | Wikipedia International Trade Administration

theboardiQ's Economic Relevance Score provides a comprehensive, data-driven assessment of a nation's economic vitality and global significance. This score is meticulously calculated using 11 key parameters, each reflecting a critical facet of economic performance. It analyzes the representation of Fortune 500 companies within a nation, a strong indicator of its business environment and market size. The balance of trade surplus or deficit reveals the nation's international competitiveness and export strength. It incorporates Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a fundamental measure of overall economic output, and examine the health of key sectors like agriculture and manufacturing. The score also accounts for innovation, gauging a nation's ability to drive future growth through technological advancements. Crucial labor market indicators such as employment rates are considered, alongside fiscal policies reflected in tax rates. To capture the lived experience of citizens, it assesses cost of living and disposable income, providing insight into purchasing power and economic well-being. Finally, education levels are integrated, recognizing their pivotal role in fostering a skilled workforce and driving long-term economic development. By synthesizing these 11 parameters, theboardiQ's Economic Relevance Score delivers a nuanced and holistic view of a nation's economic standing, enabling informed strategic decisions. The Top 5 States in the assessment are Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida and Washington. Texas does consistently well across most of the 11 variables especially in the areas of GDP, F500 representation in the State, Balance of Trade where it ranks 2nd nationally. North Carolina scores as the highest-ranking state nationally in manufacturing and performs consistently across the other variables. Virginia does well in disposable income where it ranks 3rd nationally. It also scores high in the variables of manufacturing and employment Florida holds the 4th ranking nationally for GDP and Tax Washington State scores the top spot for disposable income nationally, 2nd for education and 3rd for innovation. Colorado, with an overall rank of 7 scores the top spot for Education (schools and higher education). Nebraska, that ranked 10th overall, did well in Agriculture where it is ranked 3rd nationally as well as Trade Balance where it ranked 5th. Illinois, though ranked 20th overall did well nationally in F500 representation, GDP, Agriculture, and Disposable Income. Pennsylvania comes in at 21 overall doing well nationally in GDP (6th); Manufacturing (8th) and F500 representation (8th) New York scores 23rd overall with a 2 ranking in Disposable Income nationally, as well as 3rd in both F500 representation and GDP. California comes in at 29th overall and has the top spot ranking in a whopping 4 variables nationally – GDP, Innovation, Agriculture and F500 representation. However, performance in the areas of Trade Balance, Cost of Living, Tax, Manufacturing and Employment resulted in the overall ranking dipping. Wyoming at 30th overall scores the top spot nationally in the area of Tax Massachusetts at 31 overall does well in innovation where it is ranked 2nd nationally Arkansas at 36 and Alabama at 39, do well in overall Cost of Living where they are ranked 2nd and 3rd nationally, respectively. Louisiana ranked 44th overall is ranked 1st in Trade Balance nationally.

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